Drought lingers

The National Drought Mitigation Center says the drought is likely to continue this year across the mid-Western United States.

That would have a devastating impact on hog and beef farmers in both Canada and the U.S. and, in the longer term would price both beef and pork out of the reach of a significant percentage of households.

The main concern right now is winter wheat that has no snow cover, so is highly vulnerable.

It also seems likely that corn will be planted into dry fields.

That has beef and hog farmers deeply concerned about feed costs. If they can't afford feed, they will sell their herds, increasing meat supplies in the short term, but leaving them short in the longer term.

While the cattle industry isn’t currently seeing a direct impact from the snow drought, Derrell Peel of Oklahoma State University believes the recent past could provide some guidance in terms of what might need to happen this summer.

“We had some of the same conditions in 2010 and (the cattle industry) didn’t see what could happen then, but they sure see it now,” Peel told Meatingplace magazine.

“If we get to March and it’s still dry, things will quickly go into severe conditions, unlike with summer droughts, where things have time to ramp up in terms of response.”

Bill Helming speaking in Linwood

Bill Helming, respected veteran economist who follows long-term trends in the beef industry, told an Ontario audience of cattle producer this week that another drought-reduced crop would be devastating for a lot of beef and hog producers.

Peel, the Livestock Marketing Specialist at OSU, notes that the southern plain is “really hurting for water now because of the snow drought,” while Oklahoma will have “nothing left” if similar dry conditions continue into mid-March.

Peel says the cattle industry will be forced to go into immediate liquidation mode, adding that “the clock is ticking and we may see liquidations taking place as soon as April or May.”